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House prices have fallen, but don't expect a big downturn

199 comments · 2,912 votes

I bought my house to live in, warm, comfortable and a good home for my family. I dont care whether it goes up or down in value. Im not in it for the capital gain.

Add a sixth and seventh reason...restrictive building covenants and local authority bureaucracy (i.e consent costs)...

Sellers wont sell at a loss = most sellers have owned their hose for many year, and its likely that they would have tripled or quadrupled their money in that time - so at at loss to understand the reasoning here.

God invented economic forecasters to make weather forecasters look good.

Mmmm, even if you gifted a house to everyone - some would wreck them, some would be thankful and live in them and look after them, and some would sell them and invest in crypto currency of the month / gamble it up / get better returns on the money in the share market, etc. The point being you can please some of the people only some of the time, the more you give the more some want, and have you ever seen a happy socialist working and earning their own money?.

Kiwis wont sell at a loss unless they really have to, said the photo caption. Hmmm - I wonder if the writer thought about that? If they think that they have to then they will, and if they dont think that they have to then they wont.

oversimplified, people enter the market daily, skewering your theory. And blaming the agent is cliched, ever heard of greedy or unrealistic vendors? People have been predicting the bust for the last 2 years....and they are still waiting, and people continue to miss out because they think there is going to be some massive drop in prices.

â˜Ian1840. You are absolutely right. We have recently built a house, the cost of building is massive. The price of building materials suggests not enough competition!

Nice fairy story mate, the glitch in the plot is the fact that our population will continue to grow i.e theres always going to be new buyers coming along to replace your first 5 buyers!

Uugggghh.... stats are so darned annoying. QV tells us house prices are falling. I dont see that happening where I live. Houses are still selling way, way over RV and often what you buy does not reflect value for money. Aint gonna change anytime soon. Too many buyers and not enough houses. The only thing to do if youre looking to buy is wait (and for young people that might mean staying with Mum and Dad a tad longer) until theres more stock and that could take a good year or two. Same goes for those selling and buying in the same market.

Heres why house prices wont plummet, people can afford to service the mortgages, when interest rates go up to 8% then some people could be forced to sell then causing house price drops

Good description of the housing market in Waiouru, Huntly and Tokoroa. Doesnt work like that in the big smoke where are more than two employers.

8% is the historical average, If people budgeted on 4% its their own fault.

Productivity has gone up at a cost of investment in capital. Its not the human factor that has increased productivity.

Debt has a massive influence in a downturn, if theres more going out than coming in each month - choices can quickly evaporate whether you like it or not!

The other part of interest rates being so low is that keeping money in the bank as savings is a waste of time. Low interest rates mean it is better to invest in housing where you get higher returns.

It did happen here, many regions saw drops of 25% and Auckland building just stopped and the prices dropped 5 to 10%. Most did not sell but the sales fell by 30 or 40%. Just ask builders how they fared when the work dried up. Now that lack of work that started ten years ago has had two effects, 1) No work therefore no apprentices and 2) we all know a persons working life is about 40 years, so the builders without work either did something else or just retired over the six odd years of little work.

Make new immigrants build a new home to live in as a condition on coming to New Zealand permanently. They can build and sell it or build and live in it but it puts the housing pressure on one of the key drivers - the immigrants themselves. If you want to come and live in New Zealand you need to increase the housing count by 1 - simple.

Why after two houses selling does not six more buyers turn up making it 9 buyers and four more people list their house ? and 8 to 875 is fueling inflation so the capital gains still look good . Tuff luck about getting made redundant,it happens ,but a future landlord is one bid away and rubbing his hands.